Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that split the nation and caused turmoil, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly split population where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in academia but very few elected officials or campaigners want to engage even with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer supports unity or the existing arrangement. Both writes two essays that strive for neutrality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and social data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions cover identity markers, duties, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," said the writer. "Debate indicates an recognition of the concept that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters claim they favour unification but reject increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government should determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate points, he stated. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will eventually not succeed but both parties has possesses something to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster must participate in the debate, urged O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
