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New Yorkers will discover the identity of their next mayor this election day, in a contest that will determine who governs and protects the nation's largest city at a moment when the former president has threatened to deploy military troops to the city.

Against that backdrop, New York has witnessed a race for mayor that has pitted two very different Democrats against each other. The election has become an increasingly bitter showdown, marked by alleged racism and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the ideological divide between the two leading candidates that could have major implications for how the Democratic party fares in next year's midterm elections.

The Progressive Challenger

In the progressive corner is the democratic socialist, the 34-year-old progressive candidate whose meteoric rise and grassroots campaign has attracted global notice. Representing the old guard is the former governor, the former Democratic New York governor now running as an independent – and enjoying the backing of ultra-rich donors and corporations.

As the election approaches, it is Mamdani, the one-time underdog who beat Cuomo in the Democratic primary who is solidly positioned as the frontrunner. Mamdani, who has campaigned on a agenda of economic justice and pledged to freeze rent for about 2 million New Yorkers, has outpaced his rival by double-digits in every poll taken in the fall, and it is very much the younger man's race to throw away.

The Controversial Campaign

Yet, Cuomo, who resigned as the state's leader in 2021 amid allegations of sexual harassment, has stated clearly he will battle to the finish, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt manner. He has criticized his opponent's objectives as unachievable, and in recent days chuckled along as a radio host made anti-Muslim comments about the candidate, who is Muslim. Recently, the independent was widely condemned as racist after posting an AI-generated ad that featured a slew of racial caricatures and showed Mamdani freeing a convicts.

This represents a particularly ugly end to an election that could be critical to the path that the party, struggling in its response to Trump's power moves, takes in the coming years.

National Implications

If the progressive wins convincingly, the party establishment who have declined to support his bid will be compelled to address a message that has resonated with Americans' anger at economic disparity, inflation and the political elite. It would be hard for the Senate leader and the House leader not to embrace at least a portion of Mamdani's progressive proposals about affordability, given the newcomer has generated an excitement within the Democratic ranks arguably not seen since Bernie Sanders ran for president eight years ago.

Conversely, should the former governor, who had been predicted to sail to victory in the June primary, achieve a surprising riches-to-rags-to-riches victory, it could cement national Democrats' existing approach of considered, lackluster opposition – a strategy that has infuriated the party base. A NYC defeat of the progressive's progressive, positive message could persuade Schumer and Jeffries that the best plan is to stick to the political center – even as polls show the present version of the party is deeply unpopular across the country.

Voter Enthusiasm

Voters in the city appear to favor the Mamdani vision. Surveys show that Mamdani supporters are far more enthusiastic about their candidate than his opponent's supporters, something that has been apparent during the race. The candidate's engaging content on social media, his optimistic vision for the city and his willingness to actually venture out and meet people in the city has drawn an army of more than 50,000 supporters, many of them young or new participants.

Personal Attacks

Yet, the former governor, in his late sixties, continues to fight. And with the stakes against him, the ex-leader has turned to negative campaigning in the final days.

After spending months launching various attacks at his opponent to see what might stick, Cuomo has narrowed his focus on attacking Mamdani directly. He has called Mamdani, who was born in Uganda to Indian parents, an "radical", and popped up on Fox Business for an discussion with Maria Bartiromo, where the candidate asserted the city “will not survive” his opponent as mayor. It reached a nadir last week, when the former governor laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said Mamdani would “cheer” another 9/11-style attack.

Political Landscape

This strategy echoes much of what the former president, who has sent the military reserves to Washington DC and warned to take similar action to NYC, has said about Mamdani, and perhaps that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A set of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who contributed to the Republican in the 2024 election, have pumped millions into trying to get Cuomo elected, as other influential figures have pressured Curtis Sliwa to drop out from the contest.

Political Histories

As far as the his team, and his wealthy backers, are concerned, it should not have reached to this point. When Mamdani, one of one hundred fifty New York state assembly members, launched his mayoral bid in October 2024, not many had heard of him, and in truth, barely anyone even noticed.

Cuomo, by contrast, entered smoothly into the contest in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the big beast who seemingly held every edge. The classic political insider, he had wed a Kennedy and served in a Democratic presidency. He became New York governor in over a decade ago, 17 years after his father, the former governor, stepped down from the same position.

Mamdani, who was voted in to the New York state assembly in 2020, does not have the same political heritage. But his commitment to providing no-cost transit and free childcare – along with the rent control promise – offer a brighter outlook of the city's direction than Cuomo’s pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his promise to hire more police officers.

Campaign Controversies

Still, Mamdani has faced some challenges in recent days, after video surfaced appearing to show him suggesting the New York police department and the IDF were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the police is on your neck, it’s been influenced by the Israeli military,” Mamdani said in the clip, filmed at a DSA convention in recent years. Mamdani, a vocal opponent of Israel who has said the nation is committing genocide in the Palestinian territory, suggested he was questioning cooperative programs between the city police and Israeli forces.

Powerful Moment

As the race closes, the candidate appears to have won sympathy and support, however, for his response to Cuomo’s escalating attacks.

The progressive responded to Cuomo’s 9/11 remarks in an emotional video. In it, the candidate recalled how, when he first ran for state assembly, a Muslim uncle suggested to him that he did not have to tell people about his Muslim faith. It was a realization, Mamdani said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been told “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the margins of our community. That it is in those shadows alone where followers of Islam could express their true selves, and that if we were to step out from those seclusion, then it is in those shadows that we must set aside our faith.”

Speaking to the actions of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has claimed Mamd