🔗 Share this article

Just 60 days ago when Morgan Rogers found himself on the Sunderland turf, looking confused while his coach berated him for missing a through-ball. At that point, as Villa went six without a win, doubts remained if his displays were a symptom or the source of the team's broader struggles.

“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”

On Sunday, however, the manager's outburst was far more favourable. When Rogers swept in his second strike to reinstate the lead for Villa, Emery ripped off his jacket, spread his arms and roared. The team marched on to a tenth straight victory and despite not winning their initial half-dozen games, find themselves a mere three points off the leaders Arsenal.

Is This Team Legitimate Title Contenders?

It remains a particularly tough question to address. Past precedent, a general sense of Villa, argues against it. Moreover, they've rarely been entirely convincing this season, while the victories have stacked up.

As per statistical analysis, twice all season have Villa posted an expected goals figure significantly higher than the opposition. For a team which has just won a ten-match winning streak, the Villans seem curiously susceptible – but at the moment the tight outcomes are swinging for them.

The Rogers Recipe

The current approach appears to be to exchange chances with the opposition and wait for their star man to save the day with two crisp finishes. This was the case away to Leeds, it transpired in London, and once more when facing Manchester United.

His opener came from a brilliant finish, curled just inside the upright from a wide position. The follow-up goal proved to be a slight scruffier version of the opener as he pounced on a setup by his strike partner.

“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”

How Long Can This Continue?

Logic says not. Against United, the opposition managed more shots and more efforts on goal. They have triumphed in eight consecutive games by a single goal. They have allowed goals in all but one of those matches.

A statistical correction could be the biggest rival they will encounter as the season progresses. Rogers, almost certainly, cannot keep on thrashing his shots into the net's top corner week in, week out.

A Case for Belief

Perhaps there is a different scenario where, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, performances begin to trend towards results. Important figures could still find their top level.

• The centre-forward could start scoring again.
• Jadon Sancho could transform into the performer he resembled at Borussia Dortmund.
• The injured centre-backs will eventually come back from the treatment room, fortifying a sometimes shaky defence.

This could contain the seeds of a genuine bid, however, it is improbable cannot keep relying on one man.

Relishing the Unlikely

But then, this was unforeseen. It seemed improbable Villa would occupy in the top three for the holidays. And most definitely back in October, no one envisioned the midfielder now would be spearheading a championship pursuit while looking like an essential England player.

The current run should be enjoyed for the very reason that it feels so unlikely. As the match-winner stood in front of the home supporters at the final whistle orchestrating the applause, he seemed to be thoroughly enjoying it. A feeling he has rightly earned. These runs of form are rare in football and must be appreciated.